Vietnamese durian has been very popular in China in recent years, and farmers have switched to growing durian. Finding new farmland to grow coffee has become increasingly difficult, leading to a sustained surge in international coffee bean prices.

Vietnam is the world’s largest producer of Robusta coffee beans, but factors such as drought, increased demand, and the hot sales of durian in China have prompted farmers to switch to growing durian, seriously affecting the production of Vietnamese coffee beans.

On Wednesday (May 29th), Vietnam’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development reported that due to drought, Vietnam’s coffee production from 2023 to 2024 was 1.47 million metric tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20%, reaching a four-year low. This has put pressure on the global supply of Robusta, causing market concerns about coffee shortages and driving up coffee prices.

According to official data, in the first quarter of this year, Vietnam’s coffee exports amounted to nearly 799000 metric tons, earning foreign exchange of 1.9 billion US dollars (approximately 2.6 billion Singapore dollars). The export price of coffee ranges from $3500 to $4000 per metric ton. At this price, Vietnam’s coffee exports are expected to reach 5 billion US dollars this year.

Vietnam is the world’s second-largest producer of coffee beans. In addition to the El Ni ñ o phenomenon causing drought in Southeast Asia and affecting harvests, many Vietnamese farmers have turned to growing durian, which is also one of the main factors causing a continuous decline in coffee cultivation and seriously affecting supply and market prices.

The continuous drought in Vietnam will affect the production and supply of coffee beans, and climate change will make coffee more bitter and expensive in the future. According to Vietnam Express, durian, known as the “fruit king”, has been very popular in China in recent years. Last year, the total export value of Vietnamese durian reached 2.3 billion US dollars, more than five times that of 2022, of which 87% were sold to China. The authorities expect the total export value of Vietnamese durian to reach 3.5 billion US dollars this year, prompting many farmers to switch to durian cultivation. The Vietnamese Coffee and Cocoa Association warned in March this year that coffee exports may decrease by 20%.

In addition, the increasing demand for coffee in Asian countries is also one of the factors leading to the rise in coffee prices. According to data, from October 2022 to September 2023, the consumption of coffee beans in the Asia Pacific region was 44.5 million bags (60 kilograms per bag), an increase of 12% from the previous four years, accounting for over 25% of global coffee consumption. However, during the same period, Vietnam’s coffee production was 29.2 million bags, with an annual decrease of 9.8%.